Spinning the Economy
There has been a great deal of talk about Friday's disappointing job numbers as well as the economic situation. Interestingly, Reuters reports that U.S. Productivity Stronger Than Expected while the AP's headline reads a bit differently: Productivity Posts Slowest Rise Since 2002. Both stories refer to the same economic statistics, yet the headlines give the reader a vastly different impression. This just reinforces the fact that one must use caution in interpreting news, particularly politically-sensitive stories such as economic reports.
Speaking of economic spin, Paul Krugman sheds some light on the issue of Bush's spinning of economic numbers. He adeptly points out that Bush constantly talks of the economic growth occurring under his administration, citing his tax cuts as a great stimulus. Yet Bush fails to ever mention the hemmorhaging of 1.1 million jobs during his administration. If this trend continues, it would make him the first president since Hoover to preside over a net loss of jobs.
It is interesting to note that while the president tries to take credit for the alleged positive effects of his tax cuts, he also tries to distance himself from economic numbers that don't make him look very good. My personal belief is that business cycles are fixed to a degree, and that presidents only have so much influence over the direction of the economy. Yet if one tries to take credit for putative positive economic growth, one must also be willing to take responsibility for hard economic times as well.
Speaking of economic spin, Paul Krugman sheds some light on the issue of Bush's spinning of economic numbers. He adeptly points out that Bush constantly talks of the economic growth occurring under his administration, citing his tax cuts as a great stimulus. Yet Bush fails to ever mention the hemmorhaging of 1.1 million jobs during his administration. If this trend continues, it would make him the first president since Hoover to preside over a net loss of jobs.
It is interesting to note that while the president tries to take credit for the alleged positive effects of his tax cuts, he also tries to distance himself from economic numbers that don't make him look very good. My personal belief is that business cycles are fixed to a degree, and that presidents only have so much influence over the direction of the economy. Yet if one tries to take credit for putative positive economic growth, one must also be willing to take responsibility for hard economic times as well.
posted by Ben at 9:30 AM
2 Comments:
Hey Ben, it's UnityMike. Your post reminds me of something that recently happened. This short summary will speak for itself:
Joshua Bolten, director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), announced that his office now estimates the deficit will be $445 billion this year. While still a record shortfall, Bolten was quick to point out that the new figure is $76 billion less than OMB projected six months ago--evidence, he claimed, that the administration's plan to halve the deficit in five years is "ahead of pace." "We believe that [the lower deficit projection] is a product of the strong economic policies that the president has put in place," Bolten said.
Many news organizations quickly picked up this story line. For instance, on NBC's evening broadcast, anchor Brian Williams parroted Bolten's claim that the new number "was good news because it came in lower than earlier projections." But, as Williams and every other reporter should have known, the new deficit projection was lower than earlier estimates largely because those earlier estimates were grossly inflated. In fact, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities warned months ago that the administration would use exaggerated deficit projections to later claim headway on deficit reduction. If only the media had been paying attention.
Thanks for the great comment Mike. I actually read the same information as well, and as usual, I was astonished how the media failed to read between the lines.
I give this administration a lot of credit for being great at spinning everything, but they are particularly adept at spinning economic figures. To the average person, it sounds like good news that the deficit is narrower than projected, but the informed citizen would realize that the deficit is still huge. And, of course, the administration purposely estimated the budget to be higher than it would be in all likelihood. This enabled it to look like they were making progress.
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